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WSA-ENLIL+Cone Model For 2.0 AU with Completion Time: 2022-04-27T18:11Z

Model Inputs:
2022-04-27T08:48:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=25.0, Lat.=46.0, Speed=709.0, HalfAngle=31.0, Time21.5=2022-04-27T13:40Z
2022-04-27T14:53:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=28.0, Lat.=29.0, Speed=970.0, HalfAngle=36.0, Time21.5=2022-04-27T18:19Z

Model Outputs:
Earth Impact:
Earth Shock Arrival Time = 2022-04-30T08:30Z (+- 7 hours) [PE: 9.1 hr]
Duration of disturbance (hr) = 194.5 (+- 8 hours)
Minimum magnetopause standoff distance: Rmin(Re) = 6.4
Possible Kp index:
(kp)90=3
(kp)135=5
(kp)180=5

Other Location(s) Impact:
STEREO B with estimated shock arrival time 2022-04-30T09:09Z

Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220427_181900_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220427_181900_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220427_181900_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220427_181900_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_B.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220427_181900_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220427_181900_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_B.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220427_181900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220427_181900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Kp_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220427_181900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_PSP_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220427_181900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220427_181900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STB_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220427_181900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Mars_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220427_181900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Merc_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220427_181900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_SolO_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220427_181900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Venus_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220427_181900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Osiris_timeline.gif

Note :
The combined leading edge of these CMEs may also impact Bepi around 2022-04-29T06:00Z (plus minus 7 hours).

Submitted on 2022-04-27T18:34Z by Mary Aronne

A Notification with ID 20220427-AL-003 was sent on 2022-04-27T19:16Z
A Notification with ID 20220428-AL-001 was sent on 2022-04-28T12:15Z


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